Iran and nuclear proliferation

George Carty:

How would you respond to those who oppose a nuclear Iran because it might lead to further nuclear proliferation?

There is no evidence that Iran has a nuclear weapon programme and even were Iran to develop one in the future, Iran still would be a long way off from being able to produce a nuclear warhead and even further away from reaching nuclear polarity with the Pakistanis and Israelis, let alone the United States. Hence Iran does not present a nuclear threat to regional enemies.

Were Iran to develop several nuclear reactors, Iran would be in a position to realise Ahmadinejad's stated aim of supplying domestic energy consumption whilst significantly reducing petroleum and gas production. Moreover, it is also Iran's stated intention to share nuclear knowledge with other NAM countries. Iran is not alone in it assessment that the possession of a nuclear energy programme will be a strategic necessity in the future. None of theese indicates an intent to acquire a nuclear arsenal.

Furthermore, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are de facto US military outposts, which would be transformed into launch pads for US nuclear missiles in the event of an Iranian nuclear attack; in fact, Israel already has a nuclear arsenal. Moreover, neither Turkey nor Saudi Arabia would acquire nuclear weapons without the express consent of the United States.

Therefore, I view the argument as based on three false premises: namely, that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons programme; that US vassals are without a considerable nuclear deterrent; and that the United States would permit these vassals to acquire an independent nuclear arsenal in any event.