Zarqawi Death Will Prove a False Dawn

Last night there was conflicting information was comming out of Iraq regarding the death of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, currently not many details have been released. There is speculation that his death was caused by a US special forces or by Iraqi security forces. However, there are also reports that suggest that he was already dead and Last night's raid is a publicity stunt to buttress the Iraqi government.

In truth, al-Qaeda in Iraq (Tawhid and Jihad) had long since ceased to be important to the Sunni Wing of the Iraqi resistance and the United States has been overplaying its role and the personality of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, so as to establish a link between the Iraqi resistance and al-Qaeda and to forward the veiw that the insurgency is a foreign export. However, now that al-Zarqawi is dead, it will be rather difficult to maintain this illusion.

Nor will it be possible to maintain the other illusion, that the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki is governing Iraq. The failure of Maliki to secure his parliament nominees for the posts of the Interior and Defence Ministry has exposed the degree of his impotence. These are undoubtedly the most important posts in the ministry yet they remain unfilled, albeit that Maliki has ostensibly gained the Shia alliance approval for his new nominees. General Abdel Qader Jassim is, the Sunni candidate is likely to gain the defence ministry post - that is, all being well with the Shia nomination for the more important role of Interior minister.

Maliki's has forwarded two nominations for this post, his preferred candidate is Farouk al-Araji, an obscure individual. The other candidate Jawaad al-Bolani is the preferred choice of the SCIRI. It is far from clear what the SCIRI reaction will be if as is expected al-Araji gets the appointment.


Reuters quote a government source as saying,

"He is in a corner .... Either he gives in to his Alliance
rivals or there is no other way out but resigning".

And quote a Shia Alliance source as saying

"He must understand he is nothing without the Alliance, he
must consult us first. He represents us".

The failure of Nouri Maliki to find any via media is because increasingly it does not look one is to be found. In a post Saddam Iraq it is inconceivable that a represent that has neither the support of Sayyed Al-Sadr or Sayyed Al-Hakim could effectively representative al-Shia.

Update:

Jawaad al-Bolani has been appointed Minister of the Interior. On the face of it, this a victory for the SCIRI and solidifies their control over the ministry. This morning Reuters reported that the Kurds and Sunnis had pledged support for al-Araji.